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| Driest August on record and not much relief in sight |
Director of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Dr Geoff Love today
announced that a number of areas of Australia, including in the vital
catchments of both Perth and Melbourne, are reporting the most severe
short-term rainfall deficiencies on record.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, August 2006 was the driest
August in the historical record from 1900, based on the average
rainfall across Australia. The total area that was already deficient in
autumn/winter rainfall at the beginning of the month has expanded
substantially, especially over southern Australia. There have been
record low winter falls recorded over a large part of southern Western
Australia and parts of eastern Australia. Deficits dating from the
start of autumn also intensified across the south-east, including
Tasmania.
These short-term rainfall deficiencies further exacerbate the very
protracted dry period that most of southern Australia has experienced
since late 1996, and eastern Australia since 2002. This is highlighted
in the Bureau’s official Drought Statement, released today (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml).
“Water storages are already severely stressed and many areas have
not had substantial relief rainfall for many years,” said Dr Love. In
addition, most of these same areas have experienced persistent high
temperatures. Dr Love emphasised that, “if the current low rainfall and
high temperatures persist, the consequences will be wide ranging,
including an elevated bushfire risk this coming summer and escalating
water shortages and restrictions.”
In light of the Bureau of Meteorology Seasonal Outlook, released on
Wednesday 23 August, relieving rainfalls over the next few months do
not look promising. The US Climate Prediction Centre recently increased
its estimate of the chance of an El Niño to about 50 per cent. While
the Bureau of Meteorology confirms that there is a continuing shift of
conditions towards an El Niño event, at present most climate models
predict the continuation of near neutral conditions.
Dr Love said, “Regardless of whether the current conditions develop
fully into an El Niño ‘event’ or fall just short, the current warm
ocean temperatures in the Pacific mean that the odds of good rainfall
over Australia in late winter/spring are reduced, and that the
above-average temperatures already being observed are likely to
continue.”
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